Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BAB I
DATA HIDROLOGI
1.1
Data Hujan
Menurut Sri Harto, 2000; 35, data hujan yang akan digunakan dalam analisis
hidrologi harus merupakan data yang mengandung kesalahan yang sekecil mungkin,
karena menghilangkan sama sekali kesalahan adalah tidak mungkin. Hal tersebut
harus dilakukan, karena besaran hujan merupakan masukan terpenting dalam analisis,
sehingga dapat dipahami, apabila kesalahan yang terbawa dalam data hujan terlalu
besar, maka hasil analisispun juga diragukan, padahal akan digunakan sebagai acuan
dalam perencanaan maupun perancangan.
Kesalahan-kesalahan yang banyak terjadi dalam analisis hujan adalah :
Kelengkapan data
Kepanggahan data (konsistensi data)
Cara analisis
1.2
Kelengkapan Data
Data hujan dikumpulkan dari lapangan oleh para petugas/pengamat. Dari
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Jika hal seperti ini terlalu sering terjadi akan sangat merugikan, dan hal inilah
yang kadang-kadang digunakan sebagai salah satu alasan untuk tidak menggunakan
data stasiun tersebut secara keseluruhan dalam analitis, tanpa disadari bahwa dengan
berkurangnya jumlah stasiun dalam analisis justru akan mengundang kesalahan lain.
Untuk mengurangi kesulitan analisis karena data yang hilang tersebut,
kemudian dicoba untuk dapat memperkirakan besaran data yang hilang tersebut
dengan membandingkannya dengan menggunakan data stasiun lain disekitarnya.
Dalam hal ini diandaikan bahwa sifat hujan di suatu stasiun sebanding dengan sifat
hujan disekitarnya.
Secara umum, pengisian data hujan yang hilang dapat menggunakan 2 cara,
yaitu :
1.
2.
b.
c.
Reciprocal method
d.
b.
Metode Markov
Metode Reciprocal
Dalam metode reciprocal, diperlukan stasiun pembanding, dimana
diusahakan stasiun pembanding memiliki elevasi yang tidak jauh berbeda dari
stasiun yang dikaji. Perhitungan dapat dilakukan dengan rumus :
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Dimana,
b.
Px
PA
dxA
PB
dxB
Pn
dxn
: X
Xi
1
n
( X X )2 2
: S i
n -1
: X = X + S.(k)
X X
n 1
Dimana,
X = Data curah hujan rata-rata
S = Standar deviasi
Xi = Data curah hujan bulan ke-i
1.3
Analisa Perhitungan
a. Metode Reciprocal
3
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Contoh perhitungan untuk mencari data hujan yang hilang pada stasiun 1
pada bulan Februari tahun 1986 dengan cara kerja sebagai berikut:
Menentukan stasiun pembanding, yaitu stasiun 2 dan stasiun 3.
Hitung jarak antara stasiun yang dikaji dengan stasiun pembanding 2 (dX2)
dan satsiun pembanding 3 (dX3), dari peta Ensanak yang berskala 1 : 50000,
dx2 = 6,25 km dan dx3 = 5,8 km
Masukkan data curah hujan dari stasiun pembanding 2 (P2) dan stasium
pembanding 3 (P3) pada bulan dan tahun kajian yang sama, P2 = 0 mm dan
P3 = 76 mm.
Masukkan nilai dX2, dX3, P2, P3, ke dalam persamaan
[
Ulangi cara diatas untuk memperoleh data hujan pada bulan, tahun dan
stasiun yang lain.
b. Metode Bilangan Acak
Sebagai contoh, dilakukan perhitungan untuk rangkaian data tahun 1983
stasiun 1 dengan cara kerja seperti berikut:
Urutkan data curah hujan dari Januari 1982 hingga Desember 1982.
Dihitung nilai rata-ratanya, Xrata-rata = 52,42 mm
Dihitung deviasi standar, standar deviasi = 24,59
Tentukan persamaan distribusi normal :
X = Xrata-rata + S.k = 52,42+ 24,59 (k)
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Didapat bilangan acak dari tabel bilangan acak yaitu 7822 untuk bulan
Januari 1983.
Dihitung peluang, peluang = 1 (7822 / 1000), dan hasilnya adalah
0,2178.
Dicari nilai k pada peluang 0,2178. Didapatkan dari table bahwa nilai
peluang 0,2178 terletak diantara peluang 0,2206 dan 0,2177. Dimana
pada peluang 0,2206 harga k = -0,77 dan pada peluang 0,2177 harga k =
-0,78. Dengan interpolasi, akan didapatkan nilai k pada peluang 0,2178 ;
(
[
(
)
)
))
1.4
Hasil Perhitungan
Berikut ini adalah data curah hujan maksimum satu harian di tiap-tiap
stasiun dan hasil pengisian data curah hujan yang hilang dengan Rasional dan
metode Bilangan Acak.
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.1 Data Curah Hujan Maksimum Satu Harian pada Stasiun 1
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
BULAN
JUN
JUL
82
80
56
28
x
51
40
69
119
81
88
56
67
126
49
34
61
75
88
75
92
71
103
105
55
36
45
33
69
x
x
92
55
55
34
86
24
60
41
66
61
43
84
65
46
38
124
64
120
83
88
20
62
89
x
130
63
55
55
111
56
49
87
45
69
87
77
124
23
106
27
70
84
57
25
74
84
110
79
x
52
75
74
88
70
72
59
40
46
48
82
44
39
50
69
82
85
65
68
51
41
44
69
80
x
54
73
95
43
83
87
63
72
96
64
125
46
94
66
40
36
18
62
63
74
58
47
40
35
x
47
46
72
57
65
55
x
50
36
45
20
45
88
68
125
34
81
35
68
92
27
100
70
93
x
43
74
23
88
47
92
x
69
87
70
19
47
48
22
90
50
34
35
57
29
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
12
46
24
85
x
47
69
55
11
8
75
x
95
55
34
25
94
75
67
47
59
x
47
88
71
34
78
133
53
x
56
57
41
46
67
88
x
18
31
43
41
83
80
75
64
33
x
93
78
111
83
82
39
53
x
79
49
66
61
54
51
x
51
64
138
56
39
106
43
91
46
x
73
93
54
46
56
41
88
x
43
70
57
69
40
100
x
39
74
23
20
110
94
96
63
63
x
84
113
52
48
184
56
61
x
55
90
86
82
49
x
x
69
75
67
92
79
72
70
51
100
x
94
29
93
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.2 Data Curah Hujan Maksimum Satu Harian pada Stasiun 2
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
54
96
x
46
x
x
x
x
51
44
51
54
79
x
x
x
24
34
326
x
50
x
x
x
x
20
72
x
72
x
x
x
x
42
55
85
60
34
x
x
x
10
30
195
x
60
x
x
x
x
47
46
x
80
x
x
x
x
53
x
90
52
42
x
x
x
54
37
318
x
68
x
x
x
x
126
45
x
91
x
x
x
x
75
52
109
x
48
x
x
x
55
24
325
x
37
x
x
x
x
74
30
x
84
x
x
x
x
35
61
71
59
34
x
x
x
42
42
390
x
64
x
x
x
x
BULAN
JUN
JUL
69
64
x
28
x
x
x
x
52
27
61
63
70
x
x
x
18
64
130
x
79
x
x
x
x
52
72
x
156
x
x
x
x
93
23
120
100
53
x
x
x
x
32
20
x
x
x
x
x
x
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
47
28
x
56
x
x
x
x
25
77
54
39
52
x
x
x
x
42
77
x
x
x
x
x
x
20
60
x
46
x
x
x
x
63
34
40
104
53
x
x
x
x
47
239
x
x
x
x
x
x
72
46
x
48
x
x
x
x
40
98
56
x
40
x
x
x
x
x
150
x
x
x
x
x
x
54
38
x
93
x
x
x
x
64
86
70
x
78
x
x
x
x
x
160
x
94
x
x
x
x
110
38
x
45
x
x
x
x
93
48
56
x
73
x
x
x
x
32
175
x
50
x
x
x
x
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.3 Data Curah Hujan Maksimum Satu Harian pada Stasiun 3
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
BULAN
JUN
JUL
50
84
x
64
x
40
36
57
x
x
x
x
173
121
106
38
62
52
119
42
159
89
85
87
46
34
91
x
38
76
49
84
51
x
x
x
x
150
39
65
54
86
84
53
83
28
41
46
51
123
109
37
x
63
81
54
60
43
x
x
x
x
75
35
157
91
97
84
57
30
54
70
84
47
53
57
74
x
73
74
97
51
71
x
x
x
x
85
42
30
129
85
51
45
95
28
71
123
62
52
63
30
x
41
29
61
39
49
x
x
x
x
75
86
41
105
93
57
38
125
54
54
46
61
79
34
41
x
31
29
51
65
41
x
x
x
x
x
40
53
52
69
45
60
145
51
97
27
44
98
23
144
x
38
25
49
41
48
x
x
x
x
x
x
63
31
64
49
38
62
36
36
65
46
98
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
44
56
x
56
12
59
73
39
x
x
x
x
46
x
35
9
69
116
52
69
21
29
x
88
4
99
33
x
61
34
51
53
77
x
x
x
x
70
x
35
37
105
52
49
71
41
62
87
38
32
60
45
x
43
59
42
42
60
x
x
58
x
84
x
57
85
65
46
53
64
69
107
100
70
49
133
61
x
53
54
69
56
51
x
x
81
x
63
x
46
89
68
42
129
30
67
85
73
69
49
91
64
x
25
39
68
57
68
x
x
70
x
50
x
59
87
96
74
45
28
39
69
32
64
86
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.4 Data Hasil Perhitungan Curah Hujan Stasiun 1 yang Hilang dengan Metode Reciprocal
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
BULAN
JUN
JUL
82
80
56
28
0.00
51
40
69
119
81
88
56
67
126
49
34
61
75
88
75
92
71
103
105
55
36
45
33
69
40.83
26.33
92
55
55
34
86
24
60
41
66
61
43
84
65
46
38
124
64
120
83
88
20
62
89
43.52
130
63
55
55
111
56
49
87
45
69
87
77
124
23
106
27
70
84
57
25
74
84
110
79
39.76
52
75
74
88
70
72
59
40
46
48
82
44
39
50
69
82
85
65
68
51
41
44
69
80
15.58
54
73
95
43
83
87
63
72
96
64
125
46
94
66
40
36
18
62
63
74
58
47
40
35
15.58
47
46
72
57
65
55
29.15
50
36
45
20
45
88
68
125
34
81
35
68
92
27
100
70
93
13.43
43
74
23
88
47
92
46.27
69
87
70
19
47
48
22
90
50
34
35
57
29
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
12
46
24
85
6.45
47
69
55
11
8
75
18.05
95
55
34
25
94
75
67
47
59
15.58
47
88
71
34
78
133
53
18.27
56
57
41
46
67
88
48.12
18
31
43
41
83
80
75
64
33
33.31
93
78
111
83
82
39
53
31.70
79
49
66
61
54
51
0.00
51
64
138
56
39
106
43
91
46
57.49
73
93
54
46
56
41
88
29.01
43
70
57
69
40
100
0.00
39
74
23
20
110
94
96
63
63
45.67
84
113
52
48
184
56
61
20.95
55
90
86
82
49
63.52
0.00
69
75
67
92
79
72
70
51
100
37.07
94
29
93
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.5 Data Hasil Perhitungan Curah Hujan Stasiun 2 yang Hilang dengan Metode Reciprocal
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
54
96
26.39
46
0.00
45.18
37.88
62.65
51
44
51
54
79
123.36
79.14
36.12
24
34
326
57.55
50
80.52
93.48
95.48
50.24
20
72
15.55
72
40.19
25.91
87.77
52.88
42
55
85
60
34
39.94
65.47
57.30
10
30
195
65.56
60
80.11
54.48
83.51
104.15
47
46
29.22
80
42.83
89.81
61.41
48.65
53
52.31
90
52
42
39.71
115.53
89.12
54
37
318
65.81
68
70.00
84.00
51.71
39.81
126
45
51.83
91
39.13
75.80
62.31
72.41
75
52
109
27.80
48
43.88
38.48
106.85
55
24
325
82.75
37
77.60
95.67
64.83
51.53
74
30
4
84
15.33
57.70
55.02
70.68
35
61
71
59
34
90.71
51.84
114.42
42
42
390
84.95
64
37.04
53.54
61.94
76.64
BULAN
JUN
JUL
69
64
18.85
28
15.33
49.12
56.05
55.61
52
27
61
63
70
38.12
49.23
36.92
18
64
130
135.58
79
89.46
30.77
55.31
95.17
52
72
32.99
156
13.22
46.17
56.55
36.22
93
23
120
100
53
41.00
66.30
25.35
55.99
32
20
75.19
42.60
35.06
50.86
51.18
65.49
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
47
28
11.31
56
6.35
53.35
71.12
46.54
25
77
54
39
52
25.92
34.53
16.54
80.78
42
77
58.63
38.91
15.33
22.15
88.00
35.57
20
60
62.67
46
17.98
53.36
54.88
60.04
63
34
40
104
53
14.61
38.77
38.88
94.63
47
239
67.70
37.23
32.78
89.83
56.85
69.23
72
46
18.38
48
31.20
59.44
45.30
62.83
40
98
56
0.00
40
30.16
95.17
71.33
52.75
74.27
150
76.72
58.16
56.58
87.28
80.84
51.36
54
38
19.32
93
28.55
56.75
62.60
53.83
64
86
70
0.00
78
34.87
35.16
56.49
87.79
66.50
160
45.55
94
44.95
78.18
89.73
50.41
110
38
26.39
45
20.62
61.87
72.55
76.48
93
48
56
0.00
73
35.34
62.77
89.36
87.99
32
175
38.84
50
36.49
61.22
47.51
89.30
10
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.6 Data Hasil Perhitungan Curah Hujan Stasiun 3 yang Hilang dengan Metode Reciprocal
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
BULAN
JUN
JUL
50
84
28.48
64
0.00
40
36
57
85.58
62.82
69.82
55.02
173
121
106
38
62
52
119
42
159
89
85
87
46
34
91
16.78
38
76
49
84
51
48.61
44.32
85.51
41.69
150
39
65
54
86
84
53
83
28
41
46
51
123
109
37
31.53
63
81
54
60
43
54.02
56.45
72.71
50.47
75
35
157
91
97
84
57
30
54
70
84
47
53
57
74
55.94
73
74
97
51
71
81.61
61.15
90.18
30.00
85
42
30
129
85
51
45
95
28
71
123
62
52
63
30
35.09
41
29
61
39
49
39.07
72.19
79.14
61.03
75
86
41
105
93
57
38
125
54
54
46
61
79
34
41
20.34
31
29
51
65
41
54.54
46.32
57.95
30.96
59.83
40
53
52
69
45
60
145
51
97
27
44
98
23
144
35.60
38
25
49
41
48
90.46
35.21
105.76
49.15
61.14
44.24
63
31
64
49
38
62
36
36
65
46
98
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
44
56
12.21
56
12
59
73
39
17.88
41.91
64.68
19.17
46
27.97
35
9
69
116
52
69
21
29
23.90
88
4
99
33
67.64
61
34
51
53
77
54.35
50.78
64.41
51.11
70
15.76
35
37
105
52
49
71
41
62
87
38
32
60
45
19.83
43
59
42
42
60
50.68
75.62
58
0.00
84
32.55
57
85
65
46
53
64
69
107
100
70
49
133
61
20.85
53
54
69
56
51
66.54
62.61
81
0.00
63
37.63
46
89
68
42
129
30
67
85
73
69
49
91
64
28.48
25
39
68
57
68
87.41
48.51
70
0.00
50
38.14
59
87
96
74
45
28
39
69
32
64
86
11
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.7 Data Hasil Perhitungan Curah Hujan Stasiun 1 yang Hilang dengan Metode Bilangan Acak
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
BULAN
JUN
JUL
82
80
56
28
30.78
51
40
69
119
81
88
56
67
126
49
34
61
75
88
75
92
71
103
105
55
36
45
33
69
49.92
37.41
92
55
55
34
86
24
60
41
66
61
43
84
65
46
38
124
64
120
83
88
20
62
89
37.36
130
63
55
55
111
56
49
87
45
69
87
77
124
23
106
27
70
84
57
25
74
84
110
79
71.50
52
75
74
88
70
72
59
40
46
48
82
44
39
50
69
82
85
65
68
51
41
44
69
80
50.84
54
73
95
43
83
87
63
72
96
64
125
46
94
66
40
36
18
62
63
74
58
47
40
35
95.92
47
46
72
57
65
55
32.87
50
36
45
20
45
88
68
125
34
81
35
68
92
27
100
70
93
27.85
43
74
23
88
47
92
95.10
69
87
70
19
47
48
22
90
50
34
35
57
29
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
12
46
24
85
84.27
47
69
55
11
8
75
130.63
95
55
34
25
94
75
67
47
59
27.97
47
88
71
34
78
133
53
19.15
56
57
41
46
67
88
92.40
18
31
43
41
83
80
75
64
33
94.38
93
78
111
83
82
39
53
65.66
79
49
66
61
54
51
69.35
51
64
138
56
39
106
43
91
46
138.38
73
93
54
46
56
41
88
32.37
43
70
57
69
40
100
72.70
39
74
23
20
110
94
96
63
63
100.00
84
113
52
48
184
56
61
16.69
55
90
86
82
49
100.12
48.69
69
75
67
92
79
72
70
51
100
77.48
94
29
93
12
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.8 Data Hasil Perhitungan Curah Hujan Stasiun 2 yang Hilang dengan Metode Bilangan Acak
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
BULAN
JUN
JUL
54
96
61.66
46
83.04
64.04
72.70
18.37
51
44
51
54
79
53.97
56.51
36.26
24
34
326
59.78
50
44.69
207.29
251.87
214.21
20
72
66.85
72
109.96
81.57
47.42
56.56
42
55
85
60
34
36.32
32.92
72.96
10
30
195
425.08
60
177.16
173.22
108.91
152.79
47
46
44.88
80
72.78
68.11
31.49
52.24
53
24.27
90
52
42
37.51
66.69
38.06
54
37
318
80.26
68
79.92
217.49
217.73
180.08
126
45
51.61
91
80.99
62.94
58.14
105.00
75
52
109
80.00
48
42.50
67.65
85.64
55
24
325
251.12
37
169.11
102.68
287.24
254.63
74
30
66.17
84
53.60
102.94
56.65
79.15
35
61
71
59
34
64.28
44.74
37.12
42
42
390
466.66
64
81.46
113.42
258.46
187.84
69
64
73.25
28
86.54
78.43
69.28
61.65
52
27
61
63
70
47.74
45.39
52.58
18
64
130
183.90
79
15.20
259.25
163.46
285.08
52
72
51.66
156
71.21
108.93
34.96
53.71
93
23
120
100
53
47.70
84.64
65.37
76.37
32
20
162.09
315.16
74.86
227.25
225.88
187.99
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
47
28
64.80
56
72.71
81.66
80.07
29.61
25
77
54
39
52
65.29
64.18
64.13
28.76
42
77
294.88
281.02
287.36
343.04
293.68
188.03
20
60
47.42
46
52.55
60.98
100.27
88.59
63
34
40
104
53
57.54
45.36
49.64
67.15
47
239
55.84
171.54
161.34
245.03
170.37
211.97
72
46
54.27
48
92.73
39.20
73.14
78.84
40
98
56
52.32
40
55.10
78.36
56.07
63.13
64.91
150
42.64
208.53
154.75
73.60
132.20
89.22
54
38
61.44
93
12.14
45.95
86.09
26.14
64
86
70
104.68
78
48.14
24.15
68.68
11.36
46.65
160
227.56
94
108.04
120.22
164.77
321.00
110
38
65.32
45
91.06
92.91
73.41
73.68
93
48
56
119.74
73
53.45
48.80
41.40
60.42
32
175
248.29
50
141.14
202.32
75.21
207.15
13
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.9 Data Hasil Perhitungan Curah Hujan Stasiun 3 yang Hilang dengan Metode Bilangan Acak
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Jan
50
84
64.05
64
59.53
40
36
57
43.20
41.97
52.70
64.56
173
121
106
38
62
52
119
42
159
89
85
87
46
Feb
34
91
94.38
38
76
49
84
51
45.89
59.80
45.43
64.32
150
39
65
54
86
84
53
83
28
41
46
51
123
Mar
109
37
101.57
63
81
54
60
43
60.29
56.49
57.91
59.09
75
35
157
91
97
84
57
30
54
70
84
47
53
Apr
57
74
6.50
73
74
97
51
71
59.47
49.83
55.86
40.03
85
42
30
129
85
51
45
95
28
71
123
62
52
Mei
63
30
86.87
41
29
61
39
49
42.06
76.86
50.01
55.01
75
86
41
105
93
57
38
125
54
54
46
61
79
Bulan
Jun
34
41
41.21
31
29
51
65
41
63.82
48.93
63.43
41.37
18.67
40
53
52
69
45
60
145
51
97
27
44
98
Jul
23
144
92.24
38
25
49
41
48
74.12
43.37
49.23
43.40
74.46
53.36
63
31
64
49
38
62
36
36
65
46
98
Ags
44
56
101.16
56
12
59
73
39
54.43
55.75
43.58
47.91
46
45.81
35
9
69
116
52
69
21
29
41.62
88
4
Sep
99
33
54.33
61
34
51
53
77
43.48
53.09
53.19
75.40
70
95.84
35
37
105
52
49
71
41
62
87
38
32
Okt
60
45
74.55
43
59
42
42
60
60.42
51.96
58
63.55
84
75.74
57
85
65
46
53
64
69
107
100
70
49
Nop
133
61
81.95
53
54
69
56
51
55.91
60.88
81
28.31
63
100.08
46
89
68
42
129
30
67
85
73
69
49
Des
91
64
51.67
25
39
68
57
68
52.73
57.57
70
42.2941
50
90.04
59
87
96
74
45
28
39
69
32
64
86
14
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
1.5
Persentase Error
Nilai persentase error didapat dari hasil perhitungan metode empirik terhadap
data asli dan metode stokastik terhadap data asli. Metode dengan persentase error
terkecil, adalah metode terpilih, sehingga data yang digunakan berdasarkan metode
tersebut.
a.
Cari data yang dalam setahun tidak ada data yang kosong atau yang memiliki
kekosongan data yang paling sedikit, kemudian hilangkan data hujan yang ada
pada tahun tersebut.
Cari data yang dihilangkan tersebut dengan cara reciprocal dan bilangan acak.
Masukkan nilai data historik (data asli) dan data sintetik (data hasil analisis
dengan cara reciprocal tadi) ke dalam persamaan :
PersentaseError
| = 36,77%
Ulangi cara di atas untuk memperoleh persentase error data hujan pada bulan,
tahun dan stasiun yang lain.
b.
Hasil Perhitungan
15
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.10. Perhitungan Persentase Error Menggunakan Metode Reciprocal pada Stasiun 1
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
rata-rata
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
36.77%
11.94%
x
98.83%
x
57.86%
51.64%
55.61%
80.17%
74.87%
73.18%
55.38%
93.29%
48.40%
16.23%
39.95%
27.19%
41.77%
144.07%
69.91%
18.01%
32.65%
55.66%
55.48%
55.06%
56.26%
23.55%
82.69%
x
22.13%
x
x
50.94%
50.18%
64.67%
25.15%
54.27%
15.68%
60.54%
48.89%
47.08%
52.44%
18.22%
29.75%
82.62%
3.05%
12.65%
82.23%
61.38%
77.17%
20.38%
44.80%
8.74%
105.82%
x
20.38%
x
77.68%
48.83%
57.99%
55.41%
x
25.64%
50.90%
31.34%
58.21%
22.25%
43.80%
0.13%
49.80%
672.90%
84.79%
123.99%
46.27%
46.27%
55.70%
13.91%
77.31%
20.17%
27.88%
x
2.95%
x
0.23%
63.46%
48.45%
60.56%
65.63%
29.95%
x
69.70%
50.94%
66.42%
15.47%
61.63%
1.26%
249.12%
26.02%
60.78%
55.12%
1.67%
51.01%
45.22%
48.80%
66.07%
31.82%
x
23.88%
x
39.31%
71.30%
72.29%
62.34%
65.99%
62.24%
56.67%
22.18%
51.87%
65.58%
54.87%
50.87%
46.75%
204.35%
67.90%
62.85%
61.19%
60.14%
47.98%
42.64%
60.48%
BULAN
JUN
JUL
13.46%
9.88%
x
15.39%
x
41.70%
24.08%
69.40%
57.79%
80.78%
48.68%
x
35.22%
40.30%
36.72%
39.70%
0.89%
38.87%
35.87%
37.67%
88.11%
35.66%
58.55%
65.23%
42.77%
41.67%
34.88%
10.69%
x
0.43%
x
38.77%
70.23%
12.13%
51.10%
77.36%
39.65%
x
64.46%
x
51.64%
12.34%
26.84%
14.30%
34.87%
62.99%
61.31%
43.11%
0.22%
56.64%
81.57%
40.26%
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
278.23%
6.43%
x
34.12%
x
32.55%
43.16%
61.90%
5.16%
345.36%
66.69%
x
48.66%
x
44.69%
80.66%
60.56%
9.01%
5.12%
21.12%
80.88%
x
x
46.27%
96.97%
71.98%
83.66%
41.68%
x
2.00%
x
51.07%
50.04%
0.91%
36.63%
76.52%
78.97%
x
245.19%
x
56.27%
51.51%
32.03%
37.89%
82.55%
40.39%
33.25%
x
49.74%
73.82%
84.51%
60.43%
21.02%
44.56%
x
14.50%
x
71.44%
53.95%
51.16%
69.66%
16.03%
11.91%
x
24.79%
x
77.81%
18.45%
10.45%
76.68%
127.63%
62.21%
19.41%
x
26.40%
59.56%
51.25%
45.44%
109.67%
10.08%
x
18.74%
x
13.78%
57.02%
51.93%
57.08%
0.52%
24.09%
x
79.33%
x
7.46%
139.10%
66.79%
75.99%
49.32%
74.41%
26.18%
x
53.31%
67.19%
49.37%
51.57%
107.90%
71.76%
x
43.85%
x
33.57%
65.97%
57.52%
47.52%
54.67%
x
x
12.11%
x
52.69%
49.19%
34.71%
24.21%
50.22%
70.50%
55.91%
x
81.71%
18.57%
50.31%
51.73%
Pada stasiun 1, persentase error rata-rata yang dihasilkan oleh metode reciprocal adalah sebesar 54,23 %.
16
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.11. Perhitungan Persentase Error Menggunakan Metode Reciprocal pada Stasiun 2
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
rata-rata
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
20.52%
14.46%
x
2.25%
x
x
x
x
9.95%
13.25%
18.69%
51.13%
55.76%
x
x
x
156.37%
84.82%
67.98%
x
154.86%
x
x
x
x
54.17%
74.71%
3.72%
x
26.93%
x
x
x
x
38.29%
70.87%
52.32%
81.15%
216.44%
x
x
x
557.38%
180.00%
69.92%
x
45.48%
x
x
x
x
118.10%
110.86%
36.98%
x
5.94%
x
x
x
x
51.10%
x
70.68%
55.60%
92.03%
x
x
x
62.18%
177.97%
87.11%
x
39.30%
x
x
x
x
71.80%
48.40%
74.92%
x
16.67%
x
x
x
x
44.71%
36.57%
68.87%
x
32.91%
x
x
x
19.42%
88.94%
85.43%
x
44.45%
x
x
x
x
51.03%
28.87%
21.99%
x
29.31%
x
x
x
x
42.11%
35.88%
42.26%
49.68%
116.43%
x
x
x
68.70%
77.23%
86.87%
x
28.88%
x
x
x
x
52.35%
BULAN
JUN
JUL
34.33%
31.52%
x
17.45%
x
x
x
x
48.35%
13.44%
57.51%
x
66.34%
x
x
x
220.50%
1.97%
50.95%
x
45.58%
x
x
x
x
53.45%
52.14%
71.20%
x
59.03%
x
x
x
x
55.41%
3.71%
63.87%
x
38.65%
x
x
x
x
51.65%
52.30%
x
x
x
x
x
x
49.78%
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
38.47%
83.17%
x
24.40%
x
x
x
x
79.27%
95.10%
34.55%
x
32.86%
x
x
x
x
130.19%
23.29%
x
x
x
x
x
x
60.15%
241.85%
9.66%
x
24.41%
x
x
x
x
65.59%
7.14%
3.67%
x
14.16%
x
x
x
x
38.71%
74.37%
x
x
x
x
x
x
53.29%
1.61%
35.73%
x
0.60%
x
x
x
x
28.14%
74.03%
2.32%
x
71.12%
x
x
x
x
x
67.81%
x
x
x
x
x
x
35.17%
70.38%
54.33%
x
25.28%
x
x
x
x
49.20%
78.08%
28.50%
x
33.73%
x
x
x
x
x
29.09%
x
30.73%
x
x
x
x
44.37%
35.69%
217.23%
x
6.75%
x
x
x
x
58.45%
51.90%
33.90%
x
19.24%
x
x
x
x
128.30%
67.55%
x
35.49%
x
x
x
x
65.45%
Pada stasiun 2, persentase error rata-rata yang dihasilkan oleh metode reciprocal adalah sebesar 59,09 %.
17
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.12. Perhitungan Persentase Error Menggunakan Metode Reciprocal pada Stasiun 3
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
rata-rata
JAN
36.48%
4.60%
x
42.43%
x
35.16%
43.49%
38.44%
x
x
x
x
57.86%
47.04%
76.49%
54.50%
30.94%
5.48%
72.24%
9.19%
55.12%
59.43%
38.38%
38.62%
39.20%
41.32%
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
17.24%
35.97%
x
85.46%
x
x
44.30%
45.16%
x
x
x
x
68.52%
46.54%
48.36%
42.55%
68.86%
31.59%
143.19%
71.82%
74.33%
53.80%
29.25%
19.66%
65.68%
55.13%
37.75%
11.41%
x
34.25%
x
22.43%
46.60%
34.95%
x
x
x
x
13.49%
34.62%
77.65%
51.38%
32.27%
3.28%
194.70%
79.69%
12.69%
49.15%
49.15%
38.33%
76.01%
47.36%
74.66%
12.39%
x
16.30%
x
72.74%
25.21%
47.00%
x
x
x
x
48.32%
44.30%
18.63%
67.67%
41.88%
37.98%
311.44%
63.06%
113.87%
39.12%
73.13%
44.22%
50.12%
63.27%
9.18%
23.73%
x
99.92%
x
54.98%
4.81%
1.40%
x
x
x
x
28.90%
43.23%
20.62%
39.46%
52.65%
20.08%
492.71%
83.73%
7.85%
83.05%
31.46%
47.48%
52.36%
63.03%
BULAN
JUN
JUL
86.49%
35.01%
x
1.81%
x
53.13%
64.01%
10.69%
x
x
x
x
x
54.23%
56.82%
80.44%
54.01%
69.34%
64.12%
56.16%
10.03%
57.53%
34.08%
21.41%
52.26%
47.87%
70.81%
40.11%
x
226.21%
x
55.37%
8.21%
75.63%
x
x
x
x
x
x
43.49%
68.83%
62.65%
18.09%
44.69%
26.18%
29.37%
51.97%
72.62%
36.98%
84.95%
59.78%
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
33.63%
33.65%
x
26.34%
x
59.49%
51.93%
28.28%
x
x
x
x
60.58%
x
50.60%
41.26%
30.72%
49.33%
38.30%
65.36%
42.88%
x
x
49.15%
802.67%
91.51%
72.61%
109.56%
x
18.75%
x
44.16%
45.31%
72.92%
x
x
x
x
49.71%
x
37.52%
43.65%
59.80%
22.66%
217.55%
54.16%
59.07%
x
45.64%
4.39%
76.40%
60.81%
29.32%
42.91%
x
17.54%
x
4.34%
40.67%
44.06%
x
x
7.83%
x
45.72%
x
23.12%
66.50%
69.49%
17.19%
80.35%
27.69%
66.10%
x
62.88%
32.44%
43.96%
40.12%
62.46%
22.70%
x
70.67%
x
68.31%
36.43%
43.16%
x
x
5.25%
x
7.67%
x
74.57%
88.57%
17.74%
13.82%
1.20%
6.79%
16.77%
x
41.48%
16.72%
46.03%
35.57%
13.77%
75.39%
x
112.55%
x
58.87%
19.70%
35.68%
x
x
60.68%
x
41.93%
x
42.25%
46.22%
58.15%
29.27%
170.23%
7.37%
93.40%
x
49.39%
76.96%
45.01%
57.60%
Pada stasiun 3, persentase error rata-rata yang dihasilkan oleh metode reciprocal adalah sebesar 55,28 %.
18
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.13. Perhitungan Persentase Error Menggunakan Metode Bialngan Acak Stasiun 1
Tahun
JAN
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Rata-rata
x
58.45%
30.11%
82.61%
x
x
89.56%
33.92%
45.28%
32.86%
27.05%
x
x
56.49%
54.93%
42.82%
69.66%
25.38%
39.38%
20.65%
32.94%
27.75%
x
45.13%
86.65%
47.45%
FEB
x
72.49%
238.15%
28.13%
x
x
60.11%
54.79%
28.12%
71.39%
27.44%
x
x
38.40%
22.34%
13.29%
29.59%
69.93%
5.13%
31.81%
18.23%
35.80%
x
19.86%
18.58%
46.50%
MAR
x
73.53%
46.36%
84.49%
x
x
66.58%
2.94%
38.99%
98.82%
1.77%
x
x
55.86%
10.54%
45.31%
0.04%
49.22%
268.23%
49.87%
184.87%
11.29%
x
17.57%
257.94%
71.80%
APR
x
14.73%
24.22%
26.53%
x
x
16.58%
1.10%
18.38%
17.21%
36.11%
x
x
67.40%
27.95%
17.69%
23.67%
54.88%
74.00%
56.85%
51.69%
42.46%
x
23.94%
94.73%
36.32%
MEI
x
29.10%
11.63%
4.96%
x
x
18.63%
32.32%
28.84%
72.72%
13.61%
x
x
27.19%
37.68%
36.24%
14.45%
3.65%
4.54%
85.91%
4.43%
296.65%
x
14.39%
2.49%
38.92%
BULAN
JUN
JUL
x
33.39%
42.29%
43.77%
x
x
28.54%
6.34%
69.05%
0.26%
12.47%
x
x
66.85%
96.65%
287.93%
31.56%
27.51%
69.15%
18.37%
152.01%
23.49%
x
43.42%
12.17%
56.06%
x
43.25%
45.24%
47.71%
x
x
14.16%
224.97%
60.98%
24.26%
8.21%
x
x
39.54%
9.10%
315.60%
2.03%
0.21%
261.22%
30.72%
90.80%
179.86%
x
34.77%
106.64%
81.01%
AGUST
x
67.86%
139.99%
6.87%
x
x
29.25%
38.40%
436.76%
636.10%
35.29%
x
x
81.20%
157.57%
327.31%
21.90%
39.97%
34.53%
93.80%
60.34%
x
x
18.40%
23.81%
124.96%
SEP
x
52.01%
69.13%
23.50%
x
x
29.14%
5.01%
158.03%
6.79%
44.71%
x
x
121.86%
77.24%
56.38%
15.67%
30.98%
8.96%
19.35%
230.08%
x
x
40.06%
13.03%
55.66%
OKT
x
35.06%
181.59%
51.43%
x
x
41.04%
9.96%
31.98%
6.09%
85.28%
x
x
18.50%
37.09%
61.48%
130.31%
81.38%
42.24%
53.08%
83.86%
x
x
20.36%
16.41%
54.84%
NOP
x
9.10%
37.55%
9.73%
x
x
47.03%
48.92%
18.55%
12.31%
34.82%
x
x
0.49%
113.15%
131.98%
36.08%
8.61%
50.85%
1.68%
65.24%
x
x
37.88%
154.77%
45.49%
DES
x
84.65%
0.95%
23.69%
x
x
56.32%
19.12%
32.62%
147.83%
x
x
x
14.67%
86.21%
30.29%
15.82%
7.16%
28.57%
28.87%
88.75%
x
x
139.13%
48.48%
50.19%
Pada stasiun 1, persentase error rata-rata yang dihasilkan oleh metode bilangan acak adalah sebesar 59,10 %.
19
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.14. Perhitungan Persentase Error Menggunakan Metode Bilangan Acak Stasiun 2
TAHUN
BULAN
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
JUN
JUL
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
1982
1983
30.61%
19.61%
8.37%
33.95%
176.25%
43.70%
23.89%
174.50%
23.33%
26.18%
92.86%
96.41%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
58.58%
23.71%
64.84%
35.34%
74.53%
6.03%
55.67%
58.65%
23.65%
49.04%
9.13%
32.75%
1993
26.84%
96.39%
12.80%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
rata-rata
38.67%
46.57%
28.67%
34.65%
125.39%
24.87%
39.78%
116.58%
23.49%
37.61%
DES
50.99%
x
64.58%
Pada stasiun 2, persentase error rata-rata yang dihasilkan oleh metode bilangan acak adalah sebesar 52,65 %.
20
Ricka Aprillia_D14107032
Tabel 1.15. Perhitungan Persentase Error Menggunakan Metode Bilangan Acak Stasiun 3
Tahun
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
rata-rata
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MEI
x
20.03%
x
x
x
58.43%
19.98%
36.89%
x
x
x
x
x
51.04%
x
133.92%
68.17%
38.78%
65.65%
5.36%
51.64%
82.17%
14.97%
19.82%
33.88%
46.72%
x
10.92%
x
x
x
45.70%
45.71%
24.35%
x
x
x
x
x
12.30%
x
55.66%
14.44%
20.87%
56.87%
48.29%
302.45%
40.87%
46.10%
37.37%
77.07%
55.93%
x
189.75%
x
x
x
14.05%
13.54%
34.66%
x
x
x
x
x
129.63%
x
29.45%
7.77%
5.16%
66.37%
148.25%
84.99%
27.31%
23.16%
84.71%
64.98%
61.59%
x
95.36%
x
x
x
42.71%
30.00%
32.92%
x
x
x
x
x
64.64%
x
99.22%
30.89%
56.71%
23.27%
29.90%
173.08%
80.92%
38.38%
51.75%
61.83%
60.77%
x
195.69%
x
x
x
8.50%
4.27%
80.78%
x
x
x
x
x
45.48%
x
42.82%
14.75%
56.16%
74.25%
42.13%
27.64%
68.23%
59.85%
1.73%
6.01%
48.55%
BULAN
JUN
JUL
x
3.2%
x
x
x
38.74%
8.44%
13.52%
x
x
x
x
x
138.18%
x
74.19%
1.64%
84.53%
50.77%
30.69%
173.54%
51.93%
152.83%
34.19%
62.23%
61.24%
x
36.84%
x
x
x
46.04%
108.08%
18.80%
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
18.25%
69.25%
30.21%
94.89%
14.88%
120.70%
43.00%
49.37%
82.22%
41.19%
55.27%
AGUST
SEP
OKT
NOP
DES
x
91.41%
x
x
x
9.79%
24.07%
41.63%
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
357.80%
8.39%
29.47%
16.21%
23.38%
7.26%
81.55%
x
54.63%
1410.23%
165.83%
x
63.01%
x
x
x
62.50%
22.02%
33.68%
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
266.86%
6.26%
36.50%
45.57%
41.44%
11.33%
29.67%
x
116.80%
66.82%
61.73%
x
65.53%
x
x
x
7.19%
54.38%
15.69%
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
0.0
43.40%
103.63%
2.11%
38.85%
70.17%
77.75%
x
48.44%
20.85%
42.34%
x
33.28%
x
x
x
45.50%
3.81%
24.42%
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
63.12%
54.77%
79.69%
65.43%
196.42%
16.17%
15.28%
x
32.32%
1.32%
48.58%
x
25.97%
x
x
x
9.94%
6.29%
16.07%
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
68.99%
22.22%
11.37%
48.68%
173.03%
179.94%
0.0
x
9.20%
79.52%
50.20%
Pada stasiun 3, persentase error rata-rata yang dihasilkan oleh metode bilangan acak adalah sebesar 63.23 %.
21